RBI credit policy: Feb inflation seen slightly higher at 6.75%: CNBC-TV18 poll

The February inflation numbers are announced today. A CNBC-TV18 poll sees inflation in February rose by 6.75%, says Latha Venkatesh.

If the poll indicates inflation will come in just over 6.56% in January. But 6.75% is not itself a bad number for the economy. The Reserve Bank will look at this very crucial issue, it is the last major data point that is crucial for the credit policy on Thursday.

The RBI has repeatedly said that while growth is important to target inflation will remain important. It will not only pay attention to the headline inflation number at 6.75% will not be a bad song, but also watch out for the production index.

The production is down inflation over the past few months, but that's mainly because of huge base effect. The base effect starts for February. Manufacture of products in February 2011 took a big leap forward. So even if prices rise month-on-month rather sharply by more than 0.5%, we still have a production number less than 6%.

If the production index would fall to 5.7% increase that would be a very large number, only if you go perhaps a production inflation index around 5.6 to 5.7%. If the overall inflation number is less than 6.7% then there is perhaps a bit of a chance that the RBI may cut repo rate tomorrow.

It is something that economists do not expect the majority of economists go with a no-action lending policy but if the inflation figures were to come under very benign 5.7% on production and less than 6.7% total then there is a possibility the RBI may think there is enough tendency or trend of a decline in inflation. It is therefore a crucial issue to watch for today.

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